ascendancy assignation: Israeli elections: The 5 candidates steering the debate

The next Israeli government, which will be decided in elections on Jan. 22, faces pressing international challenges, including deciding what it will do if Iran crosses Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's red line on nuclear production. It may also be the last with a realistic opportunity to secure a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, since many analysts warn that the window for such a deal is fast-closing ? in part due to the steady expansion of Israeli settlements in the West bank.

While Mr. Netanyahu?s Likud-Yisrael Beitenu bloc is expected to get the most votes, he?ll have to make deals with smaller parties to form a coalition with the necessary 120 seats in the Knesset.

Here are 5 players shaping the campaign conversation, some of whom may become ministers in Netanyahu's cabinet:

1. Benjamin Netanyahu, your man on Iran

Benjamin Netanyahu, the incumbent prime minister who also served from 1996-99, is widely expected to serve a third term as prime minister.

?Bibi,? who heads the center-right Likud party, is known for his hawkish security views and consistent warnings about the Iranian nuclear threat. He is running on a joint ticket with Yisrael Beitenu (Israel is Our Home), headed by his former foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman.

But Mr. Lieberman?s indictment for breach of trust and fraud in December, together with a rightward shift in Israeli public opinion, may have hurt Mr. Netanyahu. Polls indicate that the Likud-Beitenu ticket, originally expected to win as many as 45 Knesset seats, will instead garner only 34 to 35 seats. They also show the prime minister losing seats to right-wing rising star Naftali Bennett, who opposes a Palestinian state.

The loss of votes to more right-wing parties comes despite the fact that Likud itself has shifted to the right, with hardliners replacing moderates. Most notable may be Danny Danon, a vocal opponent of withdrawing from the West Bank, who jumped from No. 24 in the party to No. 5 in Likud?s November primaries. Mr. Danon, who recently published Israel: The Will to Prevail, argues for strong Israeli nationalism ? even if it angers Israel?s top ally and key benefactor, the United States.

2. Shelly Yacimovich, champion of pocketbook issues

Shelly Yacimovich is Labor?s first female leader since Golda Meir in 1969 and is credited with reviving the struggling party, which, after decades as one of Israel's two dominant parties, captured only eight seats in the current parliament. But this time, Labor is expected to be second only to Likud. Ms. Yacimovich, former host of the Israeli version of ?Meet the Press,? was elected to the Knesset in 2006 and has made a name for herself by championing socioeconomic causes, including fair access to housing, education, and healthcare.

Yacimovich?s work has tapped into Israeli frustration with the widening income gap in the country ? already one of the most pronounced in the world, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

While the socioeconomic protests that drew hundreds of thousands of Israelis to the streets in 2011 have since died down, 43 percent of likely voters say economic issues such as the cost of living and housing prices will be the most important issue facing the next government, according to a recent poll by the The Times of Israel.

In a distant second, 16 percent chose Israel?s relationship with the Palestinians. Yacimovich has expressed support for a two-state solution but, perhaps because she is seen as lacking security credentials, she has remained largely silent on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Iranian threat. Despite speculation that she would join a Netanyahu government, Yacimovich has pledged to remain outside a Likud-led coalition. But she has not been able to unite other center-left parties into a bloc that could defeat Netanyahu.

3. Naftali Bennett, hi-tech entrepreneur and settler advocate

The surprise star of the elections, hi-tech entrepreneur and settler advocate Naftali Bennett, has rocketed from obscurity to the hottest politician in Israel since winning his party?s primary in November. His Jewish Home party, which holds three seats in the current parliament, is expected to quintuple its size, winning at least 14 seats.

A former chief-of-staff to Netanyahu, Bennett is now forcing his former boss to move further to the right to stop the siphoning off of votes to Jewish Home.

Bennett advocates a ?Stability Plan? that calls for the annexation of approximately 60 percent of the West Bank, including all the Israeli settlements. The territory, known as Area C, is currently under Israeli military control, but is part of the area envisioned by Palestinians and the international community for a future Palestinian state.

Bennett told the The Times of Israel that the state can?t afford to bend to international pressure on controversial issues such as Area C, where the Israeli population has nearly tripled since the 1993 Oslo Accords outlined a two-state solution.

?What?s right for Israel is to apply Israeli sovereignty over Area C, the area where there?s 360,000 Israelis and only 48,000 Arabs,? he said. ?The world will condemn. It will be a few bad days of condemnation, but if you have the will and the power to do it, you do it.?

4. Yair Lapid, the Obama-esque 'prom king'

Former TV news anchor Yair Lapid, dubbed the ?prom king? of Israeli politics, left journalism for politics last year.

Known for his good looks and famous father, who is a former deputy prime minister, Mr. Lapid is running an Obama-esque campaign based on his slogan ?We have come to change.? Yesh Atid, the name of the party he started in April, means ?There is a future.?

After losing early momentum, Lapid?s party now looks likely to pick up between six and 10 seats in the new Knesset. Lapid has not ruled out joining Netanyahu as a coalition partner, with a possible minister position for himself.

Like Labor, Lapid?s party has stayed quiet on the Israeli-Palestinian issue and has focused mainly on socioeconomic issues. Lapid has particularly criticized the amount of government funding for ultra-Orthodox schools that train future rabbis in traditional religious texts.

5. Tzipi Livni, strong proponent of Israeli-Palestinian peace

Tzipi Livni, Israel?s former foreign minister, is one of the most experienced candidates in the field. She is also one of the most outspoken of the top candidates about the Israeli-Palestinian peace process. Her center-left Hatnuah party (which translates to the Movement) aims to focus on the peace process while still appearing strong on security.

Livni, who was a part of the centrist Kadima party before forming Hatnuah, successfully wooed former defense minister Amir Peretz away from his top position in the Labor party. He defected with another top Labor politician and seven Kadima parliament members out of frustration that their parties no longer emphasize the peace process.

But despite being one of the most experienced and internationally recognized Israeli politicians, Livni has slipped in the polls. Most analysts expect her party to win five to nine seats, which could still earn her a ministerial post if she chooses to join a likely Netanyahu coalition.

Something of a political chameleon, Livni started politics in Likud before joining Kadima, a party started by former prime minister Ariel Sharon in 2005. Livni later became head of Kadima and had a chance to become prime minister in 2009 when her party won the most seats in the election. But she was unable to form a coalition government, forfeiting the post and paving the way for Netanyahu?s second term.

Livni told Israel Radio on Jan. 13 that she would consider joining a Netanyahu government if it engages in ?a real peace process and not just give negotiations lip service.?

ascendancy assignation

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Israeli elections: The 5 candidates steering the debate

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